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Out of pocket?

There’s a very curious piece in today’s Daily Telegraph about the ‘risks’ of in-running betting.

Shock, horror – but get this if your weak constitution can take it: two horses, one at 1-50 and one at 1-25, got beaten.

Poor punters who backed them, someone who read it told me, were left ‘out of pocket’ – almost as if an operator had failed to pay out.

Or answer (b), they lumped on to something that they thought a certainty, and they were wrong. They didn’t collect winnings, in common with most punters, who also place bets that they think will win and are often wrong. The odds reflected the likelihood of the occurrence happening which is, well – what odds do.

Meanwhile, two other punters backed outsiders, at 50-1 and 25-1, and won. Oh – and some people who backed the winning horse in one instance got him at 319-1.

Good on all of them. Except, of course, that’s not the story. The story is that ‘the risks associated with this form of punting were never better illustrated than in the first two races at Newbury on Wednesday’.

This stuff really makes the news?

Posted in Betting industry, Horseracing.

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The Right Thing to Do

Last week, on Question Time, David Dimbleby asked Justine Greening, the Transport Secretary, why the taxpayer would be paying for HS2, after she had commented that the development of the railway network built on the work of the Victorians. He pointed out that the Victorians had funded the expansion differently.

She replied, “I think it is the Right Thing To Do.”

This week, Ed Miliband ran around giving interviews after the unions went potty at his plans to back pay freezes. “I am doing this because I think it is the Right Thing To Do,” he told anyone who would listen.

Has ‘the Right Thing To Do’ become the most vacuous cliche in politics? Even Boris Johnson was at it the other day, and heaven knows he can string an erudite word or two together.

How many people in the country do stuff – anything – because they think it is the wrong thing to do? Surely almost everyone does whatever it is they do because they think it’s the right thing to do. If they didn’t think that, they wouldn’t do it.

Why doesn’t anyone ever ask them, and why do they never explain, why they think that? Surely that’s the… er… RTTD?

Posted in Politics.

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Betting’s impact on the Olympics? What about the Olympics’ impact on betting?

You don’t need to watch Rory Stewart poking fun at American Generals and European politicians to be wary of labelling anything a ‘decisive year’, but it’s difficult to think of 2012 as anything else if you’re sitting in DCMS. I can’t quite believe it is seven years since I was watching a television in Sydney while listening, over the telephone, to dad’s Singapore commentary as it was being broadcast in England, as London were awarded the Games.

Of the many things that will be interesting to see develop this year, one that intrigues me is how the balance of headlines is set to impact an old debate. What happens is likely to be influenced by government structure: in the last government, the Minister for Sport held the betting portfolio; but in this one, he doesn’t. Hugh Robertson has sport, and sport alone.

It is going to make for some difficult moments, I suspect, for the betting industry. First of those came on the first day of the year, when Hugh made a number of high-profile statements about betting – specifically related to integrity threats to the Olympics. Because it isn’t his job to engage with it, his knowledge of betting is bound to be limited – probably to ‘perception, plus a bit’. Sure enough, he was very much on message in recognising that the real threat comes from the illegal markets; but unfortunately, he then also added some of the half-baked rot that you often hear around but which has no basis in fact. I forget exactly what his wording was, because when he mentioned the dangers about people betting on short corners in hockey, my head was deep into the cushions of my sofa.

The big challenge for the betting industry’s lobby has for some time been to get people to understand the difference between betting integrity and sports integrity, and I suspect that this year it is going to be harder than ever to make their voice heard. The subject requires some real engagement beneath the headlines, and is too often cast as a battle of good against evil. Only last week, the news that William Hill has become a sponsor of the FA was immediately questioned, rather than welcomed: the reaction was whether the deal raised problems, when it might have been that it demonstrated the two organisations’ common interest.  You might have thought that money given to sport by any licensed, regulated, listed, significant British employer with a long-standing trading record should be nothing other than a cause to rejoice; but you’d have been wrong.

Of course, the “problems”, such as they are, are of perception; but the perception tends to be created by the very people asking the question in the first place.  The difficulty for the betting industry – generally, but particularly this year – is that most sports journalists, like the Sports Minister, spend much more time with people who are slower to recognise (as did former England batsman Robert Croft when he spoke on Radio 5 Live’s Fighting the Fixers in December) the extent to which responsibility that lies with the players, and they wouldn’t be human if that didn’t impact their thinking. This is why so many commentators and sports experts keep repeating, as part of the “internet betting is exploding and causing problems” debate, the old “time of first throw-in” chestnut which was only ever offered as a spread bet (not by an online bookie); hasn’t been offered since the mid 1990s (well before the arrival of the internet); and, unsurprisingly, was corrupted and profited from by… the players on the pitch – to the detriment of the spread companies, who promptly dropped it from their offering because they were being fleeced.

Just before Christmas, the man who does hold the gambling brief in government, wrote an article for Gambling Compliance which included this line: “Without a strong and factual base of independent, relevant and practical research, backed up by credible and trusted institutions, public debate will be overwhelmed by honestly-held but contradictory beliefs and preconceptions.” He was talking about problem gambling, in an article which focused mainly on consumer protection issues; but he might have used similar wording for the on-going debate about sport.

Honestly-held but contradictory beliefs will always compete with each other; but preconceptions from a side with a significant voice about another without one could tilt the balance of debate quite far and quite quickly. The structure of government is likely to add to that, along with the newsflow, in 2012. It will be interesting to see whether there is any lasting impact.

 

 

Posted in Betting industry, General sport, Integrity in sport, Uncategorized.

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Betfair – doom and gloom?

My phone has rung a lot in the last 24 hours, from former colleagues, other friends, and various interested parties asking what I think about what happened on Betfair on the Leopardstown Christmas Hurdle.

I’ve fought shy of writing about Betfair since July despite plenty of opportunity, because whatever I wrote, I seemed to be onto a loser: that they have had a torrid time of things has been clear for all to see, so to write otherwise seemed perverse; but I didn’t want to be another voice of doom, and it has been easier just to say nothing. Depressingly (on many levels) I was told by one former colleague that they thought I was behind all their bad press anyway, but there you go.

The reaction to the Leopardstown fiasco/farce/flare up/embarrassment (pick your headline) – a share price fall of 3% yesterday (when the gambling industry as a whole climbed 15-30% because of the favourable news out of the United States) and a further 3% today – has me finally putting down some thoughts – on the incident itself, and what I think it means more broadly.

First, the bright side from Betfair’s perspective. The £600million liability that was offered on Voler La Vedette quite clearly falls under the palpable error rule, and anyone who argues otherwise is talking cobblers. The horse was crossing the line, and being offered at 29. People can argue all they like that they were backing it there and laying it off elsewhere, such that voiding the Betfair side means that they lost out; but they cannot possibly have been backing the horse at that price without realising that a mistake had occurred, and to try to claim to the contrary is disingenuous. Suggestions that there is a legal claim don’t get to the starting gate.

Further, all credit, in my view, to the company for the statement it put up, which was honest, straightforward, and – given the circumstances – fairly prompt in coming. You might argue that they had no option, but let’s be frank: communications like that one have been short in supply of late, and in my view, they got their response absolutely right.

Rather gloomier, you might fairly suggest, is how the mistake occurred in the first place.

As everyone knows, every bet has to be supported with the collateral held in a customer account for its maximum liability, and as liability in question was the GDP of a small country (at £600million), it is not hard to guess that this would not have been the case. A very small number of customers may have credit lines, but again rather obviously not to this level; and so it would seem that something in the software went wrong which allowed the bet to pass. I suspect that it’s upon this, as much as the customer fury, that the share price has fallen: people are worried about the robustness of the software if a mistake of that sort can occur.

But they should take comfort, in my view: I doubt very much it is a signal of broader technology problems. Once in a blue moon, software bugs get hit; and while people might scoff at the level to which I am sanguine, my view is that an unhappy coincidence of circumstances has resulted in a 1 in million occurrence occurring in a particularly high profile way on a particularly high profile race, coinciding, while it was at it, with a holiday period when there’s not a lot more to excite the markets or the business writers. We used to hit software bugs every now and again that would mean that the website did strange things, but the very nature of them is that they come to light only when they happen. That is the nature of software, and I suspect that now that they have seen it happen, they will swiftly put it right. That was the pattern for the decade that I was there; it just never happened quite so obviously as this.

So much for the incident itself. Now to the wider picture.

It was put to me today by someone that this problem goes to the heart of what the person described to me as a ‘confidence crisis’ which the public markets have about the company. It is, I was told, just the highest profile example of a general malaise, and indicates that Betfair is a busted flush.

I’ll be honest: had this happened five months ago – even three, maybe two – I might have been concerned. As I said above, I have studiously avoided writing about Betfair, not because things seemed to be going wrong at the company, but because so many people seemed to feel (both in the outside world and among the grass-roots staff) that key decision-makers were showing no signs of recognising either what or why. Perhaps that was unfair; and if it was, the last person they’d have wanted to hear an opinion from was me. But it was a reason to be worried about where the company was heading: many of Betfair’s biggest advocates had stopped being vocal supporters; negatives loomed large, magnified by nay-sayers; and positives – while still there – were hard to see. Not even the company itself was highlighting them.

But recently – first gradually, and then, in recent weeks, with notable jumps –  the gloom has been lifting. Long apparently over-burdened by troubles, everyone you talk to at the company has now re-acquired a spring in their step. And the confidence at the place – although it will have taken a knock in the last 24 hours – has returned sufficiently to be tangible for the first time in ages.

There are lots of reasons for this.

First, to all reports, some recent hires (like Matt Robinson running the international business) have significantly strengthened the areas which fall under their control, and others look set to join that club in the New Year (Nick Hagen delivering a sportsbook, for instance).

Second, they know what this week’s US announcement has demonstrated clearly: that the regulatory position is not as bad as people are making it out to be, and surprises are to the upside not downside. When they can announce their long-awaited Italian licence, which I suspect they will imminently, it will give them further reason for cheer.

Third, perhaps because of all that, the bunker mentality (see above) that afflicted them after some difficult setbacks appears at last to have gone, for evidence of which Google the last month’s press: their communication has become pro-active and positive for the first time in a long while, which is wonderful to see.

And finally, although I am cutting my list short so as not to bore you: in their interim CEO Stephen Morana, they have someone at the top who is more than simply likeable and intelligent: he is an inspiring and charismatic leader who knows the company inside out, understands (indeed, uses) the product as well as anyone out there, and will not be afraid to confront problems head-on.

None of this, of course, excuses what happened at Leopardstown, or removes it from the company’s history. But as an indicator of where Betfair is at generally, my own view is that the moment under discussion is a hugely unfortunate technical coincidence which will cause angst, embarrassment and anger, but ultimately will pass; and the company’s reaction to it is as heartening as anything I’ve seen come out of Hammersmith in months.

 

 

 

 

Posted in Betfair, Betting industry, Uncategorized.

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Eurosceptics

I was amused by who was quoted and who wasn’t in the article on the front page of today’s Times headlined, “Cameron faces new euro vote in weeks”.

Priti Patel was quite happy to be named in giving her view that “the Prime Minister sent out a very clear message about the direction of travel” , but “another Tory” was not prepared to be outed when (s)he said this: “The train has left the station. I don’t think anyone is going to let it lie.”

Was (s)he concerned about being seen as a troublemaker by the party leadership, or was it just acute embarrassment at having mixed metaphors so horrifically?

Posted in Politics.

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ERP? NFI, to use a TLA

Wouldn’t it be a good idea to have a group of gambling regulators in Europe which could work together to help the development of online gambling regulation? They could share information to allow for more efficient regulation, establishing a framework which protected people while allowing legitimate businesses to offer their services and pay the commensurate tax.

Step forward the ERP – the European Regulatory Platform – which describes itself as a think-tank for doing just that. It launched this week, I gather. Wonderful, I hear you say – and I applaud your enthusiasm. Who knows?  They might even read stuff written by punters and others who know something about the market, and get some tips on what might make sense and what might not.

Or answer B: the European Regulatory Platform, despite its own lofty self-description, has a membership which includes Belgium, France and Spain – those bastions of gambling expertise – but not the UK, Malta, or Denmark who (despite being fully-fledged EU Member States with gambling regulation in place and multiple licensees between them) were, in the parlance, NFI.

So in fact, it is just a trade association of regulators who want to enforce national protectionism and find a more effective way to block the gambling industry’s voice in Brussels.

WTF?

Posted in Betting industry, Regulation.

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7-1

I’m totally confused by this Lyon story.

So, Lyon beat Dinamo Zagreb 7-1, as a result of which they qualify for the knock-out stages of the Champions’ League, and “the most obvious fear was that the result was part of a betting scam”.

Why? Why isn’t the obvious reward for fixing, qualification for the knock-out stages? Why would anyone think that the reward was a financial return from a bet?

If you needed to score a large number of goals to get through, why would you sidle up to someone who was miraculously able to make your 11-man opposition roll over and say, “hey… How about we also place a bet on this match so that we leave a bit of an audit trail out there that we’ve had a chat?” Wouldn’t you just say, “mate – there’s a million in it for you and the lads if you guys fold… It’s worth a lot more than that to us to get through. By the way, it’s all in used notes in this suitcase.”

As it happens, in my view the idea that the game was fixed at all is a joke. A 7-1 away win might be unusual, but if Ajax have lost out on goal difference, then they ought to look at the fact that they lost 3-nil themselves. Lyon needed an eight-goal aggregate differential to make it through, so the 7-1 win wasn’t enough. Anyone ‘fixing’ qualification would have had to involve not just Lyon’s opposition, but Ajax, who were playing a different match, and were the team which actually stood to lose out.

But what better example is there of the fact that whenever there’s a sniff of a suggestion of the possibility of corruption, the nonsensical, knee-jerk, blame-displacement, reaction is, “it’s all about betting”? Despite the extreme unlikelihood of there being any kind of fix at all, and the additional obvious point that were there to have been, the reward was the much-prized qualification, the suggestion that lingers is that there might be a betting scam behind it all; and apparently even Lyon accepts that ARJEL, the French betting regulator, needs to investigate.

Amazing.

 

 

 

Posted in Betting industry, General sport, Integrity in sport.

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Politicians

I’ve written before at greater length about politicians and platitudes, and how political bullshit is best detected when you can’t find a person on the planet who would argue the opposite of a comment made by someone with great passion.

Tonight I was at a dinner where a politician made a rousing speech.

The bit that got the biggest clap was this line:

“I want our children to have the best future possible. That is why I am a member of the XXXX party”.

Is anyone any the wiser as to who he represented?

Posted in Politics.


Washington

I was in Washington earlier in the week, invited to speak at a gambling conference full of regulators. It would seem that not a lot has changed, in any respect.

My pitch was that I will be interested to learn whether US regulators learn from the mistakes of other regulators around the world. Regulation, I said, is often characterised by a lack of understanding about what actually happens and far too much weight being given to the public perception rather than the reality of the mechanics of the industry; and by a desire among legislators to tread a middle path for political reasons. It needs brave legislating to deals with the issues that need to be covered, without adding the superfluous window dressing that looks good politically but actually undermines the objective.

When asked for an example of that, I cited the UK’s advertising watershed: gambling adverts are not allowed before 9pm in order to limit the risk of children gambling online.

You can legitimately argue that you don’t want gambling adverts targeting housewives at 4 in the afternoon, but it is not on the basis of this moral dislike that the watershed exists. It exists specifically because of children, and on that basis, it is a total red-herring. During term time, children are more likely to be watching television after 9pm on a Saturday (X Factor finishes at 10) than they are at half past 2 on a Wednesday; and anyway the way to stop children gambling online is to require measures of age verification which prevent someone who is too young from accessing a site. If those measures are sufficient, then it makes no difference what time gambling is advertised, because the people who aren’t allowed to access it, can’t. I’d rather see more stringent requirements around things that make a difference, rather than governments introducing things that look good in the Daily Mail but achieve nothing.

The inevitable question followed: “if my 12-year-old son takes my credit card details and logs into a gambling site, how do operators stop him from betting? What can be done about that?”

Can you imagine someone asking this question at a conference of transport regulators: “What happens if my 12-year old son takes my car keys and drives my car? What can be done about that?” And who would the finger be pointed at? Would it be the fault of the car licensing authorities, the car manufacturer, or the insurance company?

The answer to the question, obviously, is none of the above: it is a failure on the part of the parent. So, too, in gambling. Leaving aside the fact that if your 12-year old son can steal your credit card and get online, one of the last things he is likely to do is start gambling, I just can’t see how any regulator thinks that his duty is to address issues like this as part of gambling law. Surely the regulator’s job starts and ends with regulating the product?

 

 

Posted in Betting industry, Regulation.

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Justin Webb and soundbites

I had the pleasure this morning of sitting next to Justin Webb, the Today programme presenter and former North America correspondent of the BBC, when he was kind enough to come and speak at a breakfast that my company,  Camberton, had organised for a few clients and interested parties.

Alongside some fascinating analysis of the American political scene, he told one or two very amusing anecdotes.

One (which he said John Major tells of himself) he used to illustrate how careful you have to be with soundbites, since they can give a very distorted picture of the real position.

When Major first visited Moscow, soon after becoming Prime Minister, he found himself walking alongside Boris Yeltsin from a private meeting to a lunch. All his Russian experts and many from the media were around him, at a time when he was under great scrutiny because people were not convinced he was up to the job. In Russia, meanwhile, nothing was working: it was 1992 (I remember myself that in the four months I lived there from September 1992 to January 1993, the rouble went from 50 to the dollar to 243).

Major turned to Yeltsin, and asked him, “So, Boris Nikolayevich… In a word, how are things going here in Russia?”

“In a word, Mr. Major… Good.”

They walked on…

Major, slightly concerned that they were saying nothing, took up the conversation. “And what would be the slightly longer version of that, Mr President?”

“A slightly longer version… Not good.”

Justin’s got a new book out, if you want more of his stories. I read his last one – Have a Nice Day – and enjoyed it. His new one has just come out: Notes on Them and Us.

If today’s talk was anything to go by, I suspect it’s worth a read.

Posted in Politics, Stories.

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A bit of Lewis Carroll

We’re heading towards the time of year for family games. Here’s one.

All the quotes below are wisdom (or nonsense, depending on how you look at it) from Lewis Carroll, except one. Can you spot the odd one out?

Always speak the truth, think before you speak, and write it down afterwards.

Begin at the beginning and go on till you come to the end; then stop.

‘But I don’t want to go among mad people,’ said Alice. ‘Oh, you can’t help that,’ said the cat. ‘We’re all mad here.’

Contrariwise, if it was so, it might be; and if it were so, it would be; but as it isn’t, it ain’t. That’s logic.

You start in the world you can deliver in. The illegal market is the illegal market. It is very difficult to regulate. But you start by worrying how to regulate the legitimate market.

Everything’s got a moral, if only you can find it.

If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there.

It’s in the article headlined “sports bodies call for right to restrict betting” which was in the FT the other day, in case you missed it.

 

 

 

Posted in Betting industry, Integrity in sport, Regulation.

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Innovation

The following is the most recent column I wrote for Gambling Intelligence magazine.

 

I found myself in conversation recently with someone who wondered out loud whether the sparkle had gone out of the gaming industry of late.

It was, he told me, all a bit of a drudge these days: the poker bubble had well and truly burst; there was nothing excitingly new in online betting since the arrival of in-play; the consolidation story so long talked-about had hit a brick wall with the bwin.party merger (which has seen a whole company’s value disappear too) scaring everyone off; and really, the industry looked stuck in a rut. From here to eternity, in his view, it was all about fighting regulators for licences, and fighting each other for market share. Or, to put it another way, get into the race, and then beat everyone else to the bottom.

What a gloomy old view, I thought – and thankfully not one that is supported by the level (and breadth) of innovation that I have seen coming out of the industry over the course of the last twelve months.  Perhaps it’s because I’m no longer part of one of the more established companies that I have recently been shown more good ideas in start-up form than at any stage in the last few years. For a long time we seemed to be the drivers of everything that was new; but now the established industry is, well, so established, that the road seems to have been re-opened to a million new little ideas from start-up companies.

I’m not talking about the plethora of well-funded firms which populated this year’s impressive ICE: they certainly demonstrated the industry’s overall growth, but on the whole they seemed to be payment solutions and software developments around existing product. I’m talking about the number of smaller outfits which are looking to bring to market really game-changing innovation: the sort of change which Betfair brought ten years ago, with the potential to make the industry sit up and look at itself in a totally different light.

One such is scheduled to launch in October: a fixed-odds sports product which will be the first in years, to my knowledge, which doesn’t have the same basic look and feel as all the others. Based around technology currently being employed by its parent company, Betbutler (which launched in August), BetClearer promises to bring intelligent search, one-stop access to all the global brands, and – for me most interestingly – a totally new design to a market which has over the years developed a relatively standard left-hand menu of the sporting options available.  If it does what it says on the tin, it’s going to make people sit up and look.

In a similar vein, Bodugi, which launched in March, could attract a whole new audience. – even if the structure of the site is not so obviously ground-breaking on first visit.  There’s no space here to go into the details of what it does, but suffice it to say it’s different, it’s innovative, and it’s appealing.

Like BetClearer, Bodugi is just one of a host of ideas that are out there. Many will fail, obviously; the number of success stories may even be few in the end. But the view that there are no new ideas coming through is nonsense – such a nonsense, in fact, that a new fund has recently been set up to invest in some of the many coming through.  Backed by bwin.party, the concept of New Game Capital alone suggests something that the impressive pipeline of products that have come my way had already persuaded me of: there’s as much innovation now as there ever was.

 

 

By the by, the latest edition of GI appeared on my desk recently when I returned from a week in Florida with the family, and included an article which quoted me as being “disillusioned” with Betfair by the time they asked me to leave.

For what little it is worth, I’m not sure I would have used that word myself. I don’t think I was ever “disillusioned”.

There are plenty of things I would have done differently had it been my shout.  I am not sure that that is the same as saying I was ‘disillusioned’: I always had great confidence in my colleagues at Betfair, and in the product.

The phrase is, I think, an interpretation of my expressing the view that I didn’t believe we were maximising the mix between personnel and product to ensure that the whole was greater than the sum of the parts. I would sooner have described it as frustration than disillusionment, and I retain the former rather than the latter to this day.


 

Posted in Betting industry.


More hairdressers please. It’s better for the social fabric.

I keep trying to get off the subject of gambling, but when so much is said about the industry that is either illogical or merely places the blame for other issues at its door, it’s hard to resist putting a counter case.

Take, for example, the comments of the Local Government Association representative who told MPs in the second DCMS Select Committee session yesterday that “at the moment, numbers [of betting shops on the High Street] cannot be restricted and this results in crime, disorder and misery for local people.” Or the Deputy Labour leader, Harriet Harman, who yesterday published a report claiming the industry uses “predatory” practices that are “destroying” neighbourhood shopping areas.

To say that the proliferation of betting shops in some areas is what is causing crime and misery would be disgraceful if it wasn’t so obviously stupid. Admittedly, I never cease to be amazed by how many of the same sort of shop can be supported in any one place (within half a mile of my house, there are 11 estate agents, which presumably all make a living) but the fact that they can doesn’t make them predatory: it demonstrates consumer demand and offers customers choice. People don’t shop in multiple betting outlets one after the other: they decide which shop they want to frequent on any given day for reasons of price, product, ambiance, or all three.

How many options they have tells you nothing about the social problems in this country, any more than a fall in the number of shops would tell you that things were on the up. Where I used to live, the only Turf Accountant has closed, while crime has gone up. What point am I supposed to make about that?

Ms. Harman’s statement that  ”there must be the right protection in place for our high streets and vulnerable communities” falls into the category of classic political waffle, best detected when you can’t find a person on the planet who would argue “no there shouldn’t”. Her ‘the lives of many of the people in those areas are also blighted by the problem gambling that [the High Street bookmaking shops] exacerbate’ is just as easily spotted as a point-scoring opportunity taken without any regard for the facts. I bet you a pound for a penny that Harriet Harman has not yet the first clue what betting operators do to combat problem gambling (given that she took this portfolio a month ago) nor indeed what the rates are in different areas, or whether the existence of four shops increases it over two.

But the acid test as to whether any part of what she said yesterday had been given any thought will come when she makes her first pronouncement about online gambling, whose growth is a certainty if the number of retail betting outlets is cut. Presumably she will be all in favour of it, rather than arguing that betting needs to take place in a social environment (rather than the privacy of someone’s home) if problem gambling is to be curbed. Time will tell.

One final thought: in the 100-yard walk between the bus stop and my house, there is what used to be a Tote and is now a smartly-rebranded Betfred, three off-licences, and three curry houses. That means that along that stretch, just about the only types of retail outlet that I have never heard associated in some way with anti-social behaviour are an optician and a hairdresser.

Does that explain why someone broke into my car last night?

Posted in Betting industry, Politics, Regulation.

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Regulation and the market

Hats off to the online and mobile operators who gave evidence  to the DCMS Select Committee today in connection with their enquiry into the Gambling Act. I thought they did a good job, sounding authoritative throughout, with some nice touches of light and shade.

Right at the end, the Chairman, John Whittingdale, asked a question about how people know which gambling sites are licensed and which are not. The reply given was that consumers care less about licensing than they do about whether they consistently get paid out, which is of course absolutely true; but I’m not sure that it actually answers what is a favourite question among politicians, so I thought I would throw in an additional thought for what it’s worth.

In my view, the short answer is that the market does the work as far as the consumer knowing who he is betting with is concerned. Most gamblers know a handful of names of gambling brands, and they go straight to it, while those who are new to gambling go directly to the sites that they see advertised. This is why the policy of some governments to restrict licensing to too low a number to allow the big, well-known, brand names all to get in is damaging to the overall take (for which read, ‘beneficial to the black market’); and why any government with a licensing regime which blocks big, acknowledged brand names is asking for serious trouble. Regular readers of this blog will obviously know that I take the view that the French legislation, which is so poor that many of the biggest names in the gambling world have eschewed the “opportunity” to take a licence, is madness. Neither Ladbrokes nor Betfair operates there, so one of the biggest names in each of the off- and online markets isn’t part of their national picture.

The fear of unlicensed sites attracting business in a jurisdiction with decent regulation is largely misplaced, because licensed operators are able to promote themselves in the country where they are licensed, and consumers automatically go to the websites that they have heard of. Only in a regime where a reputable operator cannot promote its product is the consumer forced to Google a term such as ‘gambling site’, whereupon the concern implied by the Chairman’s question absolutely stands: there is a danger that the consumer needs to build up his own level of trust in the website’s consistency of paying out, and he might be lucky and he might not.

If every brand and website that appears on a Google search is as unknown as every other, then the consumer has no idea what the credentials of the site are, and even if it has kitemarks and flags, it will make little difference. I accept that, with guerilla advertising, e-mail contact, and cross-border sponsorship through football shirts or similar mechanisms, the issue is not 100% clear-cut; but on the whole, traditional advertising works. There is a reason that people in the UK know Bet365 and Paddy Power, and that it is that they spend a lot of money to advertise on the telly (£30m a year, in one case). So it is key, as was mentioned by the operators giving evidence earlier in their session, that licensed sites can advertise and offer promotions, while unlicensed ones cannot. And it is key for governments who wish to remain in control of gambling product in their country that they don’t try to be cute with regulation in a way which keeps well-known, well-run operators out.

 

Posted in Betfair, Betting industry, Europe, Regulation.

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Robert Peel

I was told off this week for two things (by the same person): not writing much, and being boringly long when I do. Here’s a post which seeks to correct both.

I went to hear Steven Pinker speak at the RGS last Tuesday about his new book. He was in conversation with Matt Ridley, whose recent book, The Rational Optimist I read when I was on a beach the week before, over half term, and can thoroughly recommend. Both men are of the view that we should be much more positive about the world today than most of us are, and they make compelling arguments.

How does that relate to any of this week’s news about cricket, which you may feel I have conspicuously failed to write about? (You’d be right, but it’s partly because others, like for example Simon Barnes (again), have already done so very effectively). The answer is this quote from Robert Peel, which was cited in Samuel Brittan’s review of Pinker’s book in The Spectator.

“The best way to eliminate harsh punishments is to increase the probability of detection.”

Quite.

Memo to governments: that means more licenses for online operators which can match the regulatory requirements offering protection against money laundering, other criminal behaviour, and problem gambling.

Memo to sports: that means lobbying for licensing so that you are better protected, not lobbying for money from the betting industry so that you can fuel the black market by increasing the differential in cost between the legal and illegal markets.

 

Posted in Betting industry, General sport, Integrity in sport, Regulation.

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Dick Pound speech

This speech on corruption in sport was made by the former head of WADA, Dick Pound, at the Play the Game Conference in Cologne on October 3, 2011. I have written before about the way in which sport is seen to be more interested in looking for money from betting companies than it is in dealing with the heart of the issues relating to corruption in sport. It would seem that Dick Pound agrees with that view.

I didn’t see this speech reported anywhere.

 

Responses to Corruption in Sport

It seems to be in the nature of the human condition that really bad news is suppressed and avoided until there is a crisis. Once the crisis occurs, there is a great deal of reactive remedial activity (or purported activity) in response to the crisis, followed by an after-the-fact examination of the cause of the crisis and what might have been done to avoid it.

Everyone concerned seems to think (or pretend to think) that the crisis was unavoidable and that it came as a complete surprise. This is typical organizational behaviour as well as human nature.

I do not think I am stating anything which is unknown to most observers of sport today when I say that there is already a crisis which has been allowed to build up over the past several years. Sports officials, athletes, governments and regulators have not addressed the problem of corruption in sport with anything near the vigour required to deal with activities which, sadly, have become endemic and have badly wounded the integrity of competitive sports, and put into question the results of many competitions.

There have been, of course, the usual statements in support of fair play. Equally sadly, these pious statements have not been matched by the necessary actions to ensure that what is promised is actually delivered. In the result, the credibility of sports officials and even of the sport itself is now very much in question and, frankly, there is little assurance which can meaningfully be given to sportsmen and the public at large that the problem can be dealt with.

It is true, however, that some attempts have been made to address the problem. I am part of two organizations which have concerns about the integrity of sport. The first is the International Olympic Committee, of which I have been a member since 1978, and the second is the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) of which I was the founding president in 1999. Both organizations are dedicated to improving the integrity of sport, even though they approach the problem from somewhat different perspectives.

The World Anti-Doping Agency

The IOC is positioned at the top of the Olympic Movement and has generally been accepted within the Olympic Movement as the key and directing organization, particularly in the establishment of codes of conduct and the reinforcement of the concept of sport as not only a healthy, but also an ethically-based activity.

The World Anti-Doping Agency has a more limited scope of action, established on the basis of a consensus among its many stakeholders, which include the IOC, international sports federations, national Olympic committees, Olympic athletes, Paralympic representatives, national anti-doping organizations and governments.

Its role is to lead the fight against doping in sport and to monitor compliance with an agreed-upon World Anti-Doping Code, which has been in place since 1 January 2004. This Code is amended from time to time based upon practical experience in anti-doping activities.

The role of WADA is, however, limited to monitoring compliance. It has no power to intervene or to sanction any of the stakeholders where doping activities may be found. It may only report on non-compliance, at which point the responsible stakeholder is required to act in accordance with the Code. The only operational initiative available to WADA rests in its right to institute an independent appeal before the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) whenever it is of the view that a stakeholder has failed to act in accordance with the provisions of the Code. Even at that, however, it is not WADA which makes a decision, but CAS. This initiative is, nevertheless, a powerful tool available to the completely independent agency and has been used on many occasions.

As all of us know, the essence of sport is that it is an activity governed by a set of rules upon which the participants agree. Without such rules, whatever the activity may be, it is not sport. Any breach of the agreed-upon rules, particularly with a view to achieving an advantage in the competition, destroys the value and quality of the outcome. For relatively minor breaches of the rules, most sports include in their applicable rules, appropriate sanctions, such as penalties, penalty shots, disqualification and so forth. These internal sanctions reflect an agreed- upon consensus as to what is appropriate in the circumstances.

There are, however, breaches of the rules which can destroy the overall integrity of the sport. It is of the essence of sport that the outcome of any contest is uncertain, depending upon a combination of factors, including the skill of the players, the playing conditions, tactics, conditioning and many others. This is what makes sport interesting and exciting for player and spectator alike. Activities which put in doubt reality of the competition destroy the essence of the competition.

The agreement that doping should not be permitted in sport is a recognition that a doped athlete is not a “real” athlete. His performance cannot be compared properly with that of

an athlete who has followed the agreed-upon rules and has refrained from doping. It is a corruption of the competition caused by a deliberate action on the part of the doped athlete, all the more so because the activity is clandestine, undisclosed and intended to achieve an unfair advantage at the expense of those who have not cheated. Doping is, therefore, a form of corruption in sport.

The response to doping in sport, on the part of sports authorities and governments, did not come until long after the phenomenon was recognized as a serious problem in virtually every sport. Years and years and years of endemic doping in cycling passed almost without notice and, when it was noticed, it was denied or passed off as an isolated aberration. The growing use of anabolic steroids, stimulants and other doping methods in other sports were met with institutional denial, individual lies and inconsequential sanctions. Testing was introduced with enormous reluctance and testing programs were normally limited to in- competition tests, in which a positive test was, in effect, failure of an intelligence test as much as a doping test.

It was only after the Festina scandal during the 1998 Tour de France that any concerted action against doping in sport was instituted. This led to the creation of the World Anti-Doping Agency in 1999, the first time that sport and governments sat together with equal power and equal financial responsibility within a single organization and having a common agenda. This experiment has had some success but is well short of achieving its full potential.

The International Olympic Committee

The IOC’s mandate, at least conceptually, is much broader than dealing with doping in sport. It has the advantage, and many of the disadvantages, of being somewhat removed from the day-to-day management of sporting activity. It has only two serious events every four years for which it is the responsible authority, namely the Olympic Games. It does, however, group under its moral authority a much broader array of sports and cannot help but be aware of the corruption which occurs within those sports on a daily basis. Likewise, it cannot help but notice that the overwhelming majority of the international federations gathered under the Olympic umbrella have not grappled with the problem of corruption with any meaningful degree of success.

While not personally involved in the initiative, isolated as I am from the current administration, I thought the IOC’s decision to convoke a meeting, albeit with limited and hand-picked participants, earlier this year was a useful first step in drawing more formalized attention to the problem of corruption in sport. I thought that the idea was good, but that it focused on the wrong issue, namely betting in sport. It is not betting which is the problem. I have no objection to people betting, although personally, I work too hard for my money to waste it betting on uncertainties.

So, focusing on betting was, in my view, the wrong issue, even if it did get people thinking about the problem of corruption. Where corruption and betting intersect is when the normal outcome of the competition is altered by improper activity on the part of players, officials or third parties and the knowledge of such improper activities and the likely or potential impact on the outcome of the competition is used to influence the particular bets which are made. It is still, however, not the betting as such which is the problem, but the underlying corruption of the result or competition. Betting in those circumstances is simply a means of monetizing the corruption.

Monitoring betting can be a useful diagnostic tool, which may indicate that corruption has occurred and, for that reason, monitoring of betting activities and, particularly of certain betting patterns, is likely to be a good investment in eventual reduction or elimination of corruption. You will note that I have said that monitoring betting may show that corruption has occurred. That was a deliberate choice, because the nature of today’s betting is such that it may become evident only so close to the time of a competition that, by the time it is monitored, it is already too late for the particular competition.

The most disappointing aspect for me about the IOC initiative was the response of many of the sports officials involved. Instead of focusing upon the problem of corruption, many of them saw the meeting as an opportunity to advance the proposition that because betting agencies have a profitable business in relation to sports, the betting agencies should share those revenues with the sports organizations. Quite properly, the betting agencies perceived this as little more than a money-grab by the sports organizations, rather than a serious effort to address the underlying problems. Just as they have a tendency to do so with respect to doping, sports organizations tried to lay off the problems of corruption on governments and government agencies, all but absolving themselves from any responsibility in relation to their own sports.

I believe quite firmly that sport, in and of itself, does not have all of the tools necessary to eliminate corruption in sport. This was true of the variation of corruption described as doping and it is, perhaps, even more true with respect to generalized corruption. However, the corruption of sport and the manipulation of competitive results necessarily involves players and/or officials in the sport and the corruption cannot be complete until the competitive outcome has been affected. Plans, attempts and conspiracies are all well and good, but they achieve nothing unless completed.

Sports authorities should have the best ability to know or surmise whether an outcome has been influenced. They regularly monitor play and they regularly assess the competence and independence of their officials. They regulate, at least in general terms, the payment of athletes and officials. They know areas of vulnerability within their organizations, leagues, officials and players. They should be aware of strategic wins and losses. Their rules should contemplate all known means of altering results of individual matches, particular competitions and regional outcomes.

All of that said, however, just as in the case of doping, there are many measures which sport organizations have no legal power to take or adopt. They cannot enter premises to seize evidence. They cannot tap or intercept phone and other messages which might be evidence of corruption. They cannot compel the giving of evidence under oath. They cannot seize funds. They cannot require the licensing of organizations or individuals beyond the scope of their own jurisdiction. They cannot demand access to information in the possession of public officials. They cannot demand or obtain banking records or records of transfer of funds. These measures are, uniquely, in the hands of public authorities. The interests of public authorities tend to focus on the source of funds used in betting, the transfer of funds to and from their particular jurisdictions and the taxation of profits from betting activities and from betting agencies.

Public officials have, institutionally, a lower level of interest in the integrity of competitions. Whether, for a variety of reasons, this should be a matter of higher concern, as a societal interest, is a matter for sport to convince governments. There is, I suggest, a compelling case to be made for this, but the onus for making the case must rest with the sports authorities. This is, perhaps, where the IOC can have its highest impact, since it is generally recognized that, even though the IOC has had its own failures of governance on occasion, it is nevertheless the world’s leading proponent of ethically-based sport and the importance of ethical values as an essential element of the overall social contract.

To make its message more compelling however, the IOC will first have to drive change within the sports organizations. It will have to develop a comprehensive plan to combat corruption in all its forms. It will have to analyze which actions can be taken by sport, which by governments alone, and which on a shared basis. It will have to then convince sports authorities that they must buy into their own responsibilities and to make meaningful efforts to respond to these responsibilities before they can hope convince governments of the importance of governmental involvement in the whole process.

It will not be persuasive, as it is not persuasive in the case of the fight against doping in sport, to complain that the activities to combat corruption are expensive. If the sports authorities are not prepared spend whatever is required ensure the integrity of sport, they will inevitably bear the consequences of this neglect. Governments have, of course, considerably greater financial resources than mere sport organizations. On the other hand, they have far greater responsibilities to discharge with the funds provided by their taxpayers and sport must be prepared to compete with the other demands on governments.

I think it is also a fair observation to make that, on an issue such as corruption in sport, governments will not lead. They may follow, if a persuasive case is made out, or if public opinion insists. But do not look to governments to initiate the necessary actions.

The Role of Media

I am often asked, wearing either or both of my hats as a member of the IOC and WADA, what I believe the role of the media should be in the matter of corruption in sport. There is no easy answer to this question, as I am sure you know. I do not believe the media have any particular editorial duty to act as an arbiter of personal or institutional conduct.

There is a duty to inform and to do so in a balanced and independent manner. I distinguish this from editorial policy, in which an individual or organizational perspective may be expressed, provided that the editorial perspective is not disguised as independent factual reporting.

At the present time and given the instant availability of and access to information from the huge number of sources from around the world, today’s media have an unprecedented opportunity to engage in what has been called investigative reporting. The amounts of money involved, the criminal organizations implicated and the impact on society of corruption in general certainly lend themselves to investigative journalism in connection with sport activities.

Strangely enough, however, apart from the German media, there has been surprisingly little serious investigation into corruption in sport. A huge percentage of the media have been curiously acquiescent in the face of statements that there is no corruption sport and in the face of obvious demonstrations of fraudulent and corrupt behaviour. In particular, the relative inaction by sport organizations when fraud has been demonstrated has not been commented upon or followed up by an active media.

Having headed up the IOC’s independent investigation of the Salt Lake City bidding scandal in 1998 and 1999, I am all too aware of the ability of the media to draw attention to, and to influence public perception of, the conduct of an organization and that of its members. The amount of media attention focused on the IOC during that period came close to destroying the organization itself. It was only our ability to demonstrate that we took the situation seriously and that we were determined to fix the problem which, in the end, saved the day.

When I compare that firestorm of media attention to the relatively benign, again with certain exceptions, treatment of the remarkable conduct of FIFA and certain of its executives, I am astonished. This is a far more serious and far more extensive problem for the world’s most popular sport than the relatively narrow conduct, improper as it was, of a few IOC members.

In my respectful opinion, FIFA has fallen far short of a credible demonstration that it recognizes the many problems it faces, that it has the will to solve them, that it is willing to be transparent about what it is doing and what it finds, and that its conduct in the future will be such that the public can be confident in the governance of the sport. At the moment, I do not believe that such confidence exists or would be justified if it did.

One of the measures taken by the IOC when it faced the crisis in 1998-1999 was to involve third parties, unconnected with the IOC, as part of the process. The IOC was able to borrow credibility from these independent third parties, in whom the public already had confidence and whose judgment in approving the reform package put forward could be relied upon and whose assertions that the IOC was serious, carried far more weight than similar statements made by the IOC itself.

If I were an independent advisor to FIFA today, I would counsel it to take similar measures. The risk of not doing so is that no one will believe the outcomes of whatever process it may be implementing. A good part of the problem, of course, is that we simply do not know what is being done.

We live in a period in which organizational governance is a matter of huge importance, both within organizations and with respect to perception of the organization by third parties. It is a matter of such huge importance precisely because there have been massive failures of organizational governance all around us, not just in sport, but in business, politics, education, organized religion and even medicine. Principles of good governance do not mean that mistakes will never be made, but they do ensure that there is an organizational process which will ensure that the right people within each organization will, before decisions are made, address certain important issues and that responsibility for decisions is properly assigned.

Sport, while not alone in the need for good governance, has been particularly deficient, especially with respect to transparency. Indeed, more than most organizations, sport has vigorously resisted any suggestion that its governance should be transparent and that the results, financial and otherwise, of its activities should be audited and disclosed. It is all very well to say that sports organizations are private and that there is no obligation to disclose such information. The fact of the matter, however, is that all sports organizations depend to some degree on public funds and funds provided by the public in the form of ticket revenues, sponsorships, television revenues and the use of facilities constructed wholly or partially with public funds. In many countries, the national federations affiliated with international federations depend in large measure upon government support for their activities, and even for their existence.

It would not take too much imagination to consider the possibility, as part of government responsibility in matters of corruption in sport, for them to require disclosure of such information as a condition for any activity on the part of national or international federations, and even private professional organizations or leagues, in that country.

An International Anti-Corruption Agency

There has been some talk about creation of an international anti-corruption agency for sport. The genesis of this idea has been the creation of WADA and the demonstration within that organization that it is possible for governments and sport organizations to work together within a single agency. I think it is much too early to decide whether this model would be effective in dealing with the many forms of corruption which now exist in sport and which may exist in the future.

The range of possibilities is much greater than the limited problem of doping. The experience and skill sets required to deal with corruption, particularly international corruption, are quite different from those applicable to doping. This does not preclude the possibility of creating such an organization, but its governance structure might have to be different from that of the World Anti-Doping Agency. In the case of doping, there are significant potential consequences to non-compliance on the part of a stakeholder, such as removal of a sport from the Olympic program, non-participation in the Olympic Games and removal from all positions on the WADA Foundation Board and committees. It is less clear what consequences might flow from the failure on the part of a stakeholder in a new agency to comply with its obligations.

Then, too, there is the matter of the level of representation. When we created WADA in 1999 and in the early years thereafter, there was excitement about the new initiative. Many governments were represented by ministers, who have the power to make decisions. Over time, however, this changed and the regular work of pursuing the fight against doping sport became less sexy. The ministers were gradually replaced by bureaucrats, who had no power to decide, but only to report, and to delay decision-making – this, unfortunately, in an organization which required tactical flexibility and opportunistic abilities to respond to changing situations. The danger is that WADA may sink into oblivion amongst hundreds and thousands of international organizations which meet infrequently to talk around the problems and do nothing. The most careful attention would have to be given, in the creation of a new anti-corruption agency, to avoid this risk.

It would be an exciting challenge, considering the enforcement mechanisms available to a combination of public and sports authorities in the matter of corruption in sport. I think they could be quite interesting and, perhaps, even more effective than current international mechanisms dealing with ordinary commercial fraud, money laundering and offshore financial and tax havens. The combination of confiscatory and sport sanctions might well prove to be a greater deterrent that the limited international sanctions which now exist in the commercial field. Remember, it was not the political and economic government sanctions which eventually led to the dismantlement of apartheid in South Africa – it was the sport sanctions – exclusion from the Olympic Movement.

This would, however, require considerable resolve on the part of sports authorities as well as governments. It is harder for me to speak from the perspective of governments, but I

would have a major concern regarding the willingness of sports authorities to act in these circumstances. Whenever tough action is required to enforce sport rules, there has always been an embarrassing reluctance to do so, usually citing as an excuse a concern for athletes whose participation may be affected by actions of their governments. This, in my view, overlooks the deterrent effect on behaviour which might come, for example, from excluding the sport in the Olympic Games or participation of athletes from a rogue country.

The Role of Sponsors in Fighting Corruption in Sport

Not to be overlooked in any consideration of fighting corruption sport would be the possible range of actions on the part of sponsors. Some argue that cycling would never have begun a serious fight to eliminate doping in sport had some of the team sponsors not walked away from their sponsorships, or decided not to renew their sponsorships.

If I were providing professional advice to potential sponsors of sporting events or sport organizations, I would be sure to advise them to insist upon anti-corruption provision in the contract, which would allow the sponsor to withdraw at any time if corruption occurred and to recover any amounts paid in respect of the sponsorship, plus amounts incurred by the sponsor in activation of the sponsorship.

Remember that if sponsorship disappears from organized sport, organized sport disappears from the face of the planet. Organized sport, particularly professional sport, depends on private sector support, not government support. The private sector is, therefore, in a position to insist that any organization it sponsors be free of corruption.

I appreciate that in drafting the clause I have mentioned, some defense must be accorded to the sponsored organization where it can demonstrate that whatever corruption may have occurred was completely beyond its ability to control, but I would make certain that the onus would be squarely upon the sponsored organization to demonstrate that it was free of all responsibility in the circumstances.

I would also require the sport organization to disclose the full extent of its anticorruption program and its activities in support of that program, which would include regular compliance reports by the senior executives of the organization.

Nothing will cause a sports organization to focus upon a problem with its full attention than something which will affect it financially.

Conclusion

I started off these remarks with a reference to the human condition and the tendency to put off, until it is too late, the solution to known problems. Something which all sport organizations should understand is that if public confidence in the integrity of competition is lost, the public will look elsewhere for its entertainment and will no longer support manipulated competitions. This happened in ancient Greece, in the Roman era, in the 19th century and even today.

If we want sport to go the way of the World Wrestling Federation, which could no longer even pretend that what it delivered was sport, and changed its name to World Wrestling Entertainment, which delivers programming ranking somewhere between a circus and a farce, all we have to do is keep going in the direction in which we have allowed sport to drift over the past decades.

It is later that many connected with sport seem to think.

 

Posted in Betting industry, General sport, Integrity in sport, Regulation.

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Camilla Cavendish

Delighted to see this piece in the Times today after the drivel that has been fed to the media on this subject, and apparently bought.

Posted in Politics, Uncategorized.

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Blame displacement

I had a pop at the Spectator the other day for what I see as their lazy thinking about lobbying, but to be fair to them, they are right in the thick of what is becoming conventional wisdom: that lobbyists somehow need dealing with because of the Adam Werrity affair.

I find the whole thing completely bizarre. The Times reports today that “Sir Gus [O'Donnell] said in his report that Mr. Werrity was not a lobbyist.” And yet the rulebook being thrown is aimed… at lobbyists.

Imagine that you are the Secretary of State for something, and your mate, who isn’t an accountant, helps you with your tax return which you then submit with errors. These errors are not quite so big as to be deemed to be fraud, but for a lot of people, they don’t seem far off. When you are caught out, the Government decides that the solution to the issue is to regulate accountants more tightly.

I accept that the analogy isn’t perfect: you have to qualify as an accountant, so it is very clear who is one and who isn’t. The Government’s view that Adam Werrity was not a lobbyist is moot: personally, I don’t think he can be described as one, given that he has only been able to lobby one person (his best mate) and does not appear to do what I would understand by the term, which is basically PR in Westminster. But I accept that it is arguable, on the basis that he derived income from seeking to influence policy. But that debate aside, the Government’s own report has taken the view that he isn’t one. So where is the sense in changing the rules for people who are.

When someone breaks the law, the rules don’t suddenly change for everyone else: the problem is not seen to be the law, but the person who broke it. And yet when Liam Fox breaks the Ministerial code, and his mate breaks the accepted rules of conduct, those rules have to change for everyone else, wrapping up organisations in red tape which can ill-afford unnecessary costs. The lack of judgment in this case has quite clearly been Liam Fox’s, and yet as if to deflect attention away from that most obvious of facts, the Government talks about “cracking down” on an industry. The result will be less transparency, not more. People (and small companies) who help small companies get their voice heard will stop doing so; small companies will either have to hire in-house (which they can’t afford to do) or stop offering a view on issues which affect them; and people in politics will live in even more of a bubble than they do already.

The extent to which it is evident that the rules that need changing are rules for Ministers is made clear to me by this e-mail I received yesterday, in relation to David Cameron placing restrictions on Ministers having a sufficient number of special advisers:

I had a most odd breakfast in January with an old friend, a senior minister of state and probably a shoo-in for the Cabinet next time, asking me if I could become his consigliore – a sort of semi-unofficial adviser with access to papers etc who would help him ‘beat Whitehall’, in his words. I pointed out there may be conflicts, in that I still do (some) work as a lobbyist, but he blithely dismissed my concerns saying I should be flattered etc etc. Anyway, I felt very uncomfortable with the whole idea and let the matter rest. I would have worked for him formally as his SpAD – would still do so – and it would be fun but it all needs to be above board.

Who needs to be subject to stricter codes here: the person who made the approach, or the person who declined it?

Posted in Politics.

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Separate issues

Well, it seems you can take the boy out of the betting industry, but you can’t take the betting industry out of the boy. Or not, at least, the desire to see some clarity brought to an old debate.

I’ve spent the day at the Professional Players’ Federation annual conference – an enjoyable and interesting affair until I found myself only just about managing to sit on my hands through an afternoon panel on ‘betting integrity’, which proved a frustrating thing to listen to. By the end, I was champing at the bit, and chatted briefly to (not to say let off steam at…) Tim Lamb and the day’s MC, Garth Crooks, who I last saw as we walked away from Wembley together with Dad after the 1996 FA Cup final.

I had never actually met Tim before, so it was good to do so at last. To his credit, during his spiel he stressed – many times – the need for ‘collaboration’ between all the parties involved if resolution is ever to be brought to the sports and betting debate.

But what concerned me about the session was the extent to which it – and so many sessions like it – served only to perpetuate myths which rapidly take on the status of fact in the public pysche. Tim commented that you can’t go into all the issues in depth in forty minutes, and of course he is right; but these short sessions serve only to mix up issues in a manner which distorts them beyond all recognition. It lands them all, erroneously in my view, in the betting industry’s camp; and, before you know it, solutions are being offered in Britain and Europe which do absolutely nothing to protect sport – and in many ways serve only to undermine it. Everyone’s a loser.

There were plenty of examples: Tim himself, right at the end (when he was asked what threat he thought there was to the Olympics next year), said that he was very concerned that an athlete might finish third in a heat, in order to save him/herself for the final. But this is not a betting issue: it is clear that it was ever thus. In fact, if anything, a real gambler will tell you that the knowledge that some athletes do this and others do not is part of the skill of betting – in that it requires more than a knowledge that “X is a good runner”. X may be a good runner, but may feel that he has only one race in him in which he can truly go flat out, perhaps because he is getting on a bit. That makes his decision to cruise in his heat and to storm in his final all part of his strategy; and so, too, is building that possibility into an assessment of the odds, all part of a gambler’s.

This is not limited to Olympic sports, nor to athletics. It’s a natural thing in sport; and if we lump it into the debate about the potential impact of betting, then we are looking under the wrong stones. Tim, when I discussed it with him briefly, commented that it was an insider trading issue. Moot; but if conceded, so what? So what if the family knows, or the coach knows, or other participants know? A decent journalist will know, as well; and so, doubtless, will an Anorak. The point is that the athlete or team sets out to win a gold medal. Sure, it’s pretty annoying for the gambler who doesn’t think about it and bets purely on the basis of reputation, but is that corruption in sport? Not in my book, it isn’t. In my book, corruption in sport is about someone who is going to win, and doesn’t, on purpose, because he’s being paid not to. It’s about changing the intensity of your performance for a reason not connected with your striving to finish as well-placed as your ability allows – usually for a financial return.

Garth commented that I was making a fine distinction. I think his view would be shared by more than mine. But for me, it is not a fine distinction to want to separate out issues that should not be connected, but are currently lumped together by a catch-all umbrella: on the contrary – it seems to me essential if this debate is to progress.

In the space of forty minutes this afternoon, we heard about how one incident can undermine the public’s faith in sport forevermore; coercion of players in third-division East European football; the Italian mafia; Indian betting syndicates which “do everything online and by SMS”; the alleged regular placing of $1bn on Premiership football matches; the fact that match-fixing is the biggest problem football has ever faced; “transcontinental, international crime”; the exploitation of the slow pictures by Chinese triads who pay people to watch Premiership matches and relay information by mobile phone; and the need to educate sportsmen in England, to help them avoid the slippery slope.

I am not dismissing any of these issues; but I am questioning which of them we should be worrying about on the basis that they are under our control (and by ‘our’ I mean right-thinking people with a love of sport, although I might more properly say “the control of the world’s sporting regulators”).

Sure, it’s annoying for anyone with a heart to think that there are poor unfortunate people who bet in China with illegal triads (because their government makes it illegal for them to express a view of the world legitimately). Those punters are being taken for a ride because the person offering the bet has heard by telephone what happened a few seconds earlier, and knows it has not yet been transmitted onto the television. But is it a threat to the integrity of British or European sport? Clearly, it isn’t. The fact that the picture of what happened takes longer to be transmitted than the verbal relaying of the information does not mean that the striker either changes what he’s already done (and scores with a penalty which a moment earlier he had put wide) or does something other than what would have happen naturally, because he’d been paid for it.

Equally, it’s a great shame that some areas of Europe are so riddled with bandits that people feel that the forces of law and order are not sufficient to protect them and are therefore more easily coerced into rigging matches; but I am not sure that that sad fact gives us many lessons for the English Premiership.

And much as I abhor the illegal betting that takes place on the Indian subcontinent, I don’t think it bears any more relation to what happens at Ladbrokes than does the attention to hygiene when food is prepared in a shanty town outside Mumbai with a curry house regulated by the UK’s 1999 Food Standards Act.

Sadly, though, the failure to separate issues into those that matter and those that, frankly, don’t (as far as that starting point, the danger that “one bad incident can undermine public confidence in sport forevermore”, is concerned), is rife. And it seems to me that until we have some perspective about what it is we are actually talking about, and what we can really address, we are destined to go round in circles to no useful effect.

Similarly, the extent of the issue needs to be given some perspective. Again, that is not to say we should belittle it: the simple fact that where money can be made, someone will always try to make money corruptly should be enough to ensure that we do what we can to protect our sport from wrong. But is that helped by scaring people witless?

FIFA’s Head of Security, Chris Eaton, ‘bandied about’ (PPF Chairman Brendon Batson’s word, not mine; but more accurate than I think he meant it) figures which both shocked and impressed the audience. But the quantity in which they did was otherwise equalled only by the extent to which they didn’t stand up to scrutiny.

He compared, for instance, FIFA’s “profit” of $1bn on the World Cup with betting “turnover” estimated (by him) to be $1trn. One is achieved with a margin against turnover; the other is recycled money which bears no relation to what is actually being lost (or spent). I’m all for inoculating the patient; but is the best way to do that to start a panic about contagion? These numbers are meaningless unless put into context. He might as well have given one number in yen and another in sterling; or one in binary and the other, decimal, while comparing the number of digits.

There’s an awful lot being done at the moment on betting and sport. People are running around all over the place, and I applaud both their endeavour and the calls for collaboration. But we need, too, to take a breath. Sports bodies, from nowhere, suddenly think that betting threatens their existence like never before, and such is their zeal that the betting industry is concerned that sport see it merely as a means to make money in the manner of the French. Far from being a way of undermining the black market, that will be a way to exacerbate it. If we are to move forward in a manner which is positive for everyone, we desperately need to separate all these debates into their constituent parts.

Posted in Betting industry, General sport, Integrity in sport, Politics, Regulation.

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The Spectator and lobbying

One of my favourite reads of the week is the Spectator. I’ve usually finished the news section of it by Thursday night, leaving me ready for The Week – my other favourite read – on a Friday. And among my favourite three columnists there is James Forsyth, who does battle with Rod Liddle and Hugo Rifkind for which page I read first. Week after week, he writes insightful, thought-provoking, and revealing stuff.

But this week, for the first time, I confess he’s left me scratching my head. In a piece which takes as its premise the relationship between Liam Fox and Adam Werrity, he argues that the Defence Minister “is not the only politician to become entangled in the lobbyists’ web”, and claims that “lobbyists for special interests are a cancer on the body politic”.

I spent my last five years at Betfair trying hard not to get pigeon-holed into a lobbyist’s box. But it’s hard to argue against the idea that a large part of my day job was pure lobbying: from the moment we were told, in 2002, that we were ‘driving a cart and horses through’ forty-year-old betting legislation, and that “it would be remiss on the part of the Secretary of State not to do something about it” a lot of what I had to do to defend the credibility of the company in public took place in Westminster.

I knew so little about Westminster that when, one day, someone asked me what I thought about the composition of the Joint Scrutiny Committee, I replied, “what’s a Joint Scrutiny Committee?” Had I not had some excellent guidance from a very good lobbyist – Chris Guyver – I would doubtless have been sunk; and perhaps Betfair with me.

Today, a significant part of what my new company, Camberton, does is provide similar advice; so you could argue that my reaction to the article was simply natural umbrage  at a perceived slight on part of my existence. But I don’t think it was. What I found odd about it, particularly from someone who is usually so clear in separating issues, is the illogical way in which it ascribes ill in relation to one set of people, to what is apparently absolutely normal, fine, and indeed even positive in another.

Lobbyists, Forsyth believes, “distort our democracy, skewing it in favour of those who can afford their services. Their job is to become friends with ministers, MPs, special advisers – anyone with access to power, and use that position to make the case for their clients.”

Ignore the astonishing sudden adoption by the Spectator of a position critical of the idea that some people can afford things and others not (which I might have expected to see in one of my other regular reads, the New Internationalist). Even leaving that aside, I don’t see the logic of an article predicated on this opening gambit.

I have met James a couple of times – both times at dinners with MPs. The more recent one, we happened each to be sitting on either side of a government minister. I barely spoke to the Minister because he and James were deep in conversation for most of the meal, discussing – not to say arguing about – government policy. I have no doubt that the conversation contributed to the formulation of James’s views for a subsequent article. Bright though he obviously is, I can’t imagine that he can come out with all his views in isolation: he must arrive at an opinion through cogent discussion. So, too, must the Minister.

Indeed, you might say that it is the job of every political correspondent to get to know Ministers, MPs, special advisers, and people with access to power. I shouldn’t think that they kid themselves that they are suddenly bosom buddies, even if (as is true of any work environment) some good friendships are obviously formed. You might argue, tenuously, that the political correspondent has the relationship in order to hold the Minister to account. But if the printing of political views is not also the subtle lobbying of a publication’s readership, then perhaps someone can explain to me why this same week’s edition of the Spectator has a series of articles under the catch-all title, “Say no to windfarms”.

I am not suggesting any wrong in their having these discussions – the opposite, in fact. Ministers and advisers, no less than journalists, should hear both sides of a case, and argue it to death. If their time is to be well spent, contrary positions must come from people with expertise, which therefore almost certainly means people with a vested interest. So to argue that lobbyists who take clients in to make those arguments are skewing democracy seems curious.

Of course, it is undeniable that it is easier to have a conversation with someone you have spoken to in the past. But lobbyists are not hired because of on-going relationships, or the lobbying industry would fall apart with every new election. They are hired, like other consultants, because they have expertise in a field. That expertise allows them to provide resource to companies whose other alternative would be to hire (and presumably later fire) internal people every time the government opened a new consultation affecting them or a Select Committee had an inquiry. They don’t make the argument themselves: they advise people on how to make it effectively, and who to talk to. I can’t see the threat to democracy from that. And I can’t see the logic implied by the apparent distinction between internal and external lobbyists. One is simply an outsourced version of the other.

Either way, they have an important role to play. The viability of any businesses can be subject to the whim of government, and in the event that its industry is affected, a business needs to argue its case, and – in the absence of an internal resource – be able to hire in consultants to help. Just as businesses don’t all have an army of lawyers on staff just in case they have a legal issue, so don’t they have political experts on staff just in case the government decides to look at their particular field. Having someone who is able to identify who might be interested in your subject (and who definitely won’t) doesn’t mean that lobbyists have Ministers, and others, in their pockets.

Equally, the claim that some can afford access where others cannot makes little sense: most lobbying is done by corporates, who can build it into their budgets as a cost of doing business, if they so choose. Sure, bigger companies can hire more people and spend more time pushing their point; but so, too, can they advertise more, and seek to influence broader public opinion, just like they can hire more, bigger, more expensive, and presumably better lawyers if something goes wrong.

An individual with a position on an issue can go and visit his local MP, and make his case; and if he makes it well, that MP may seek to galvanise support on his behalf. That, too, is lobbying. I don’t understand on what basis the industry is fine as an amateur pursuit but suddenly wrong when it becomes professional? Any campaign to secure any outcome involves lobbying – whether you’re trying to stop the local church from replacing its flagpole with a mobile phone mast (as is currently happening in Barnes), or trying to make sure that you aren’t legislated out of business by unnecessarily onerous legislation in the Gambling Act – an instance where, as it happens, the smallest operator won.

Ministers, MPs and advisers are not, we would hope, so weak that they make decisions on the basis that they are mates with the person who presents them with a case. Most of them weigh up the arguments on both sides, and then come to a decision of their own. That’s what happens in every walk of life, every day. What is important is that both sides are heard. Indeed, it is surely far worse when, as I have seen happen, an MP takes a position purely because it suits a major local constituent without being prepared to talk to the other side to hear an opposing view.

I have no idea what Adam Werrity has or hasn’t done. I don’t know if he’s a lobbyist or not. I do know is that if, by virtue of his friendship, he has unduly influenced policy; if, as James alleges, “Fox, as a favour to his best man, ignored the rules” [my italics], then that is wholly wrong. But that is no reason for saying that the rules themselves are inadequate, or that the professional industry is corrupt.

After the expenses scandal broke, the behaviour of the few influenced the approach to the many in a way which has undermined the ability of good people to do effective jobs. Similarly, allegations over phone hacking are now regularly used to impugn the integrity of sensible journalists and investigative journalism in a manner which risks restricting the freedom of the press. Their cover story this week suggests that the Spectator considers that lobbyists should be the next target. I’m surprised that a publication of its intelligence should succumb to such lazy thinking.

 

Posted in Politics, Uncategorized.

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